Old Managers' Tales

Originally published June 1, 2008

Over the last few weeks, Jennie Ivey was courageous enough to discuss old wives’ tales in her column. This takes courage because one person’s old wives’ tale is another person’s parenting wisdom. People don’t really like having their wisdom challenged.

I’ve never really liked the term “old wives’ tale.” It seems to imply that old husbands are immune from false beliefs. But I’m pretty sure husbands have a few of these as well.

One of my favorite tales is that more babies are born during a full moon. One of my children was born during a full moon and I remember the nurse commenting about how busy the maternity ward was that night. My other two children were born during other moon phases. Those were busy nights too, but I guess it was because of something other than the moon.

This tale is pretty easy to test. All we have to do is count the number of babies born during each moon phase and we get the right answer. Most recently, a group of researchers examined the moon phase of every birth in Austria over 30 years. What was their conclusion? There is absolutely no evidence that more babies are born during a full moon (or any other moon phase).

Beyond babies, at least 100 other studies have confirmed that the full moon has no effect on homicides, traffic accidents, suicides, psychiatric admissions, or any other human behavior.

So what does this have to do with business management? Last summer, England’s Sussex Police Department announced that they would increase patrols during full moons. One of their inspectors looked at the data from 2006 and found that more crime occurred around full moons.

Apparently he didn’t notice that, during 2006, five of the twelve full moons just happened to fall on weekends. Full moon or not, more crime occurs on weekends for reasons that have nothing to do with the moon. So the police force in Sussex is being managed by myth.

But the inspector’s study is backed up by his 19 years of experience. And that’s exactly why the full moon myth has implications far beyond police staffing practices.

Among the general population, about half of us believe that human behavior changes during a full moon. Among doctors, it’s over sixty percent and among nurses it’s over eighty percent.

In other words, the people with the most experience in this area are actually more likely to believe something that isn’t true. Experience is supposed to make us more accurate.

But this myth (like most myths) persists because of two things that are more powerful than evidence. First, we tend to notice things that confirm what we already believe. A busy night in the maternity ward during a full moon proves we’re right. Other busy nights are just dumb luck and we ignore the slow nights.

Second, these beliefs are passed down by people we respect like more experienced nurses, police officers, and old wives.

So what’s your managerial myth? Are happy workers really more productive? Is money really the best way to motivate employees? Are layoffs the best way to cut costs? Are women incapable of being good leaders?

The first step in avoiding management-by-myth is being willing to admit that your deeply held beliefs could be wrong.

I should also thank Jennie for an inspiration. I finished this column a full day before my deadline by putting a bar of soap under my keyboard.